I might be overly optimistic, but I have seen the AV technology in action and I have no doubt that it will reach a point where reliable and safe AVs will be deployed in large numbers. But I wonder about the costs of transportation and the willingness of people to pay for it.
For instance, most American's spend about $700/month on a privately owned vehicle (gas, car payment, insurance, maintenance, repairs, etc.). So it would seem that people would be willing to spend at least that much to have access to a vehicle that would take them where they want or need to go much the same as a privately owned vehicle would.
But would they?
How much would you be willing to spend (or have your credit card charged each month) to have relatively unlimited access to Uber or Lyft? How much would you be willing to pay each month for access to an AV? $20 a day every day? (that's $600 a month).
I would, but again and again, I hear people struggle with that level of expense, even though it seems to make financial sense.
Would you be willing to have your credit card charged for $700 a month for access to transportation?